10 personal finance tips

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1. Understand your current position
It might sound like stating the obvious but the starting point of any financial planning strategy should be to find out where you are. Even if you know where you want to get to, if you don't know where you currently are you are likely to be much less efficient in your route to financial success.

The four main aspects for your current financial position are income, expenditure, assets and liabilities. If you have a good understanding of these, you are already one step ahead of most people.

With your income, you should make the distinction between earned income, rental income and other income. Bank/building society interest and dividends from investments are not really income, they are just a return on your investment. Earned income would be salary/bonus or pension income if you are retired. Rather than using a gross income figure, you should work out what your net monthly income is.

Have you noticed any trends in your income over recent years? Are you currently a higher rate taxpayer or likely to be one in the near future? If your partner is also working is he or she a higher rate taxpayer?

If you have worked out your net after tax income you will have already calculated how much you “spend” on Income Tax and National Insurance each year. You should then work out as accurately as possible how much you spend over the course of the year. This should be divided between essentials such as household bills and items that are nice but non-essential, such as holidays. Take care not to include monthly savings into bank accounts or investments as expenditure.

Quite simply, if your net income is lower than your expenditure then you've got a problem that needs addressing. Any excess income over expenditure is available for you to invest for your long-term financial well-being.

The next step is to analyse your assets. This could be your home, your investment property, your investment portfolio, your pension or your savings account from example.

Once you have a headline summary of your assets, you should try to work out what the tax treatment of each is. Are they tax-efficient based on your current income tax position? It is very easy to increase returns without increasing risk, just by making your investments more tax-efficient. Few people do this very diligently though.

Finally, list your liabilities and make a note of what interest rates you are paying on each. If you don't know what the interest rate is, and most people don't, find out as a priority.

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2. Don't get stuck on the SVR
Most people don't choose a Standard Variable Rate (SVR) mortgage; it's the rate your lender switches you to when your initial offer period expires.

At the end of a Discounted Rate mortgage you could easily see a 2% + rise on your mortgage interest rate. On a £200,000 interest only mortgage, this would represent an extra £333.33 per month of interest.

If you find that you are currently paying your lender’s SVR, it's never too late to remortgage to a cheaper deal but make sure that you check the terms and conditions of your existing mortgage first.

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3. Improve the rate of return on your cash
You should make sure that you are getting a decent return on your savings.

Whereas many current accounts pay a negligible amount of interest, good savings accounts will pay in excess of Bank of England Base Rates for their easy access accounts. Higher interest rates can be obtained through notice accounts if you are prepared to tie your money up for a given period of time.

It is not practical to always be chopping and changing savings accounts but you should make sure that the interest rate is at an acceptable level. With this in mind, be careful with accounts that pay a very attractive introductory interest rate and then systematically cut this. With these accounts, banks are relying on saver apathy to keep the business.

Taking an example of £10,000 in a nil interest current account, if this were moved to a savings account paying 3% interest per annum, this would represent additional interest of £300 each year before tax.

This may seem like a very simplistic financial planning strategy but the truth is that far too many people throw money away by not managing their cash effectively. Don't let it be you!

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4. Improve the tax-efficiency of your cash
Following on from the example above, £300 of interest before tax would equal £180 after tax for a higher rate taxpayer and £240 after tax for a basic rate taxpayer. A nil taxpayer should complete a R85 form to enable them to receive the interest gross.

It can really make sense to take advantage of the different taxation levels to maximise your after tax return.

For example, if you and your partner have joint finances, you should make sure that most of your cash is held in the name of the lower taxpayer. A higher rate taxpayer will pay 40% income tax on savings where as a basic rate taxpayer will only pay 20%.

In many cases, one partner will be a higher rate taxpayer and one partner a nil taxpayer. Therefore, on the example of £10,000 attracting 3% p.a. interest, a simple strategy like this could represent the difference between having £180 in your pocket and £300.

Many couples hold their savings in joint accounts but remember that interest on these will be taxed as if 50% is one partner’s and 50% the other’s. This is therefore not always tax-efficient.

The above therefore represents another way of vastly improving your net return without having to take any additional investment risk at all.

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5. Make the most out of employer benefits
Many employers offer their staff a range of benefits as well as salary and bonus.

With some of these benefits you may have to make an active decision to join whereas with others, enrolment could be automatic.

You should check what is on offer to you (ask your HR department) and make sure that you are taking advantage of these.

Typical benefits might include:

Life assurance – this is often 4 x salary. Remember that if you leave the firm, you will lose the insurance (and you might be in poor health at the time) so where you want to make sure that your family is well provided for in the event of death, it often makes sense to have some insurance outside of your employer scheme.

Pension – this could be a final salary scheme or a “money purchase” scheme such as a stakeholder pension. Your firm could well have an appointed pensions adviser to help you with decisions on this.

Income protection (also known as permanent health insurance) - big employers often give you up to 75% of salary (minus state sickness benefits) in the event of long-term illness. You may also be covered on full salary for 6 months. This is usually only on basic salary, not bonus and is taxable so it might not be enough to protect you and your family.

Increasing numbers of employers are now offering flexible benefits packages through which you can buy extra holiday, childcare vouchers, extra life insurance, home computers, critical illness cover, medical insurance for the family etc. Such schemes are fantastic because many of the benefits you buy are tax deductible, i.e. the cost comes off your pre-tax salary.

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6. Join your Save As You Earn Scheme
Offering employees share option schemes is an increasingly popular way of giving workers a stake in the companies they work for. In the past 10 years, an estimated £100bn of shares have been transferred to employees with companies recognising the benefits of giving employees an incentive to work harder for the good of the business.

Many large firms will offer SAYE or “Sharesave” schemes. These allow employees to save between £5 and £250 per month for 3, 5 or 7 years. Employees get a tax-free bonus if they complete the savings plan.

Employers grant employees an option at outset. At the end of the period, employees choose either to use the money saved, plus the bonus and interest, to buy shares (if buying the shares would generate a profit) or have their contributions returned plus interest (if this would give the higher return).

SAYE schemes offer huge upside potential with very minimal risk. Essential, if the share price falls during the period, you will still get your savings back plus a tax-free bonus so the only “risk” is the fact that you could have received a slightly higher return through a conventional savings account.

Other employee share schemes can involve giving free shares to employees, granting options to buy shares at a set price after a specified period of time, or allowing employees to buy shares, and matching these with free ones.

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7. Maximise ISA opportunities
One of the best ways to improve the performance of your investment portfolio is to make sure that it is as tax efficient as possible. Making use of the Individual Savings Account (ISA) allowances each year is an excellent way of doing this.

When taking a longer term view, ISAs represent an excellent opportunity to build up a substantial, tax-efficient portfolio. The key is not to be put off by short term market fluctuations. ISAs are one of the few tax-efficient wrappers left, although you should be aware that they are not strictly tax-free any more.

Since 6th April 2004 it has not been possible for ISA managers to reclaim the 10% tax credit on dividends from UK equities. What this does is negate the income tax benefits of ISAs for lower or basic rate taxpayers.

There are still a number of advantages:

	Higher rate taxpayers do not need to pay the balance between basic and higher rate tax on dividends.
	All gains within ISAs are free from Capital Gains Tax. Switches can be made without worrying about CGT.
	All income received from fixed interest holdings is tax free.
	Personal administration is kept to a minimum as you will not need to declare any income or gains on your tax return.

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8. Don't try to time markets
Markets will always have their volatile periods and no one can predict which weeks or months will generate good or bad returns and how long those periods will last. However, being out of the market for even short periods can markedly affect long-term portfolio performance.

We firmly believe in the concept of the “random walk”. The logic of the random walk is that if the flow of information is unimpeded, and information is immediately reflected in stock prices, then tomorrow’s price change will reflect only tomorrow’s news and will be independent of the price changes today. But news is by definition unpredictable. As a result, prices fully reflect known information and even uninformed investors buying a diversified portfolio will obtain a rate of return that matches that of the experts.

In his famous book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” published in 1973, Burton Malkiel said that a blindfolded chimpanzee throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal could select a portfolio that would do as well as the experts.

The table below, compiled from data provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors, shows the performance of the FTSE All-Share Index between January 1986 and December 2006. This compares the overall compounded annual return if an investor keeps his funds permanently invested, and what happens when certain periods of time are missed. For comparison purposes, short and long bond returns are included.

The message is that it is very easy to get it wrong.

Market timing	Compound annual returns
Fully Invested	11.74%
Missed 1 Best day	11.44%
Missed 5 Best single days	10.40%
Missed 15 Best single days	8.37%
Missed 25 Best single days	6.72%
UK One-Month T-Bill	7.53%
Long-Term Govt. Bonds	9.15%

Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors

It is striking to note that if the fifteen best days were missed in the All-Share in the period 1986-2006, then investment returns would have been reduced by almost 29% and if the 25 best days were missed then the returns would have been lower than one month T-bills.

The chance of investing at the right time is so slim that it is not worth trying. Where practical, it makes sense to spread lump sum investments over a number of stages at monthly, quarterly or even longer intervals to reduce market timing risk.

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9. Delay pension contributions
This might sound counter-intuitive but it can be a valuable financial planning tactic in certain circumstances.

There is a general misconception that retirement planning means paying money into a pension. A pension is simply a tax-advantaged investment wrapper. Indeed, for tax efficiency and flexibility, it is often best to hold a mixture of pensions, ISAs, cash and other investments at retirement.

Pension contributions attract tax-relief at your marginal rate but are then taxed when you draw benefits. For higher rate taxpayers, a £60 net pension contribution will be ‘grossed up’ to £100 with the benefit of 40% tax relief. For higher rate taxpayers this actually means an immediate 66% enhancement on your investment.

For those who do not pay higher rate tax, there is an advantage in making any additional savings into an ISA. Like a pension, the money can be invested into equities which, over the longer term should outperform cash and fixed interest assets, but at retirement, the fund can be converted to fixed interest and any income would be tax-free.

If you are a basic rate taxpayer now but feel that you are likely to become a higher rate taxpayer in the relatively near future, why not consider delaying contributions until you can obtain higher rate tax relief.

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10. Look after the pounds, not the pennies
We have demonstrated that there are many ways to make your finances as efficient as possible.

Personal finance needn't be complicated and most people could improve their financial position significantly just by implementing a handful of the ideas suggested above.

However, none of us should lose sight of the fact that there is more to life than money. Apparently, 84 people had filed their online tax returns on Christmas Day 2007 which is a staggering statistic.

The end result of taking more control of your finances should be that you have more free time and money for the interesting things in life such as family and holidays.

Whilst it is important to make positive changes, we all have to draw a line somewhere. We would suggest that you shouldn't be too concerned about having the absolute best interest rate on your savings or the lowest possible interest rate on your mortgage. As long as the rates are good, that should be enough. Frankly, you have better things to do with your life than trying to chase the few extra decimals of return.

A more satisfying approach would be to look after the pounds by getting the important decisions right and not waste time worrying about the pennies.

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C:\Documents and Settings\itstraining\Desktop\Student1.htm

Financial websites-stock exchnges

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Useful Financial Markets Resources

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European Exchanges

• LIFFE Commodities
• LIFFE Investor
• London Stock Exchange
• OFEX
• EUREX

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American Exchanges

• Chicago Board Options Exchange
• Chicago Board of Trade
• Chicago Mercantile Exchange
• Nasdaq
• New York Stock Exchange

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Regulators

• Financial Services Authority
• Commodity and Futures and Trading Commission
• National Futures Association

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Alphabetical

• American Stock Exchange
• Amman Stock Exchange, Jordan
• Athens Stock Exchange, Greece
• Australian Securities Exchange (ASX)

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• Bermuda Stock Exchange
• Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV)
• Bolsa de Madrid
• Bolsa de Valores de Lima (BVL)
• Bombay Stock Exchange (Mumbai Stock Exchange), India
• Borsa Italiana
Budapest Stock Exchange (Hungary)
• Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (Argentina)
• Bursa Malaysia

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• Canadian TSX
• Caracas Stock Exchange (Venezuela)
• Chicago Board of Trade
• Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
• Chicago Stock Exchange (CHX)
• Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE)

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• Deutsche Börse Group

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• Eurex

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• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (China)

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• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
• Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE)

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• Jasdaq Securities Exchange (Japan)
• Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

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• Kansas City Board of Trade
• Karachi Stock Exchange (Pakistan)
• Korea Exchange (KRX)

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• London Metal Exchange (LME)
• London Stock Exchange (LSE)

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• Montreal Exchange

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• NASDAQ
• Nagoya Stock Exchange (NSE)
• National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE)
• New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
• New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
• New Zealand Exchange Limited (NZX)
• NYSE Euronext

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• Osaka Securities Exchange
• Oslo Börs

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• Philadelphia Stock Exchange
• Philippine Stock Exchange

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• Rio de Janeiro Stock Exchange

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• SWX Swiss Exchange
• Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE)
• Shenzhen Stock Exchange
• Stock Exchange of Thailand
• Stockholm Stock Exchange
• Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSEC)
• Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE)
• Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)

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• U.S. Futures Exchange

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• Wiener Börse (Also known as the Vienna Stock Exchange)

Technical market indicators

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The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com Page

The E-Book of

Technical Market

Indicators

by

Wall Street Courier

Version 1.1

office@wallstreetcourier.com

www.wallstreetcourier.com

1

The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com

Preface

The transparency of the American markets offers an array of indicators and allows deep insights of prevailing sentiment. You find the activities of NYSE members like specialists and floor traders, public and odd lot short sales, the Short Interest Ratio as well as the large block transactions of the institutional investors published every week. Other tools for technical analysis include trend indicators, daily advances and declines, daily new highs and lows, volume, indices, put/call ratios and other useful information like Stochastics, RSI, MACD, TICK and more. The problem is only that all these indicators contradict each other most of the time. Countless books have been written on this subject, and no matter how many will be written in the future: always be aware that there is no such thing as the Holy Grail of the stock market. But some people are more successful than others and the answer is quite simple:

No indicator is right all the time and you don't have to be right all the time. Just be right a higher percentage of the time than wrong. Choose some reliable indicators and stick to them. Don't follow some indicators for a while and switch to some others if they fail. Don't be a technician in the first half of the year and a fundamentalist the next half. Be consistent and disciplined in your approach. Don't abandon a good indicator because you think this time everything is different.

It takes of course a lot of guts because the opinions of the most widely quoted gurus of Wall Street are usually contrary to your indicators at that time. This is much easier if you don't use margin. You will sleep a lot better if you buy fifty shares of IBM with the money you can spare than two hundred shares on credit.

Happy Trading

Wall Street Courier

www.wallstreetcourier.com Page 2

The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com

Table of Content

Advance-Decline Indicators...................................................................................................5

Advance-Decline Line........................................................................................................5

Advance-Decline Ratio.......................................................................................................7

Upside-Downside Volume Ratio........................................................................................8

Upside-Downside Volume Line..........................................................................................9

Upside-Downside Volume Net Difference........................................................................11

Advance-Decline Net Difference......................................................................................12

Global Futures Advance-Decline Index............................................................................13

Global Futures Upside-Downside Volume Index..............................................................13

Market Indicators.................................................................................................................14

High-Low Differential Index..............................................................................................14

High-Low Ratio................................................................................................................15

Global Futures High-Low Index........................................................................................16

Global Futures Bottom Indicator......................................................................................16

Cycles.............................................................................................................................19

Large Block Index............................................................................................................19

Short Term Trading Index (ARMS Index or TRIN)...........................................................20

Trend Indicator.................................................................................................................22

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)..............................................................................................23

Index Options Put/Call Ratio............................................................................................23

Call/Put Ratio...................................................................................................................24

Global Futures Put/Volume Ratio.....................................................................................25

Smart Money Flow Index.................................................................................................26

Global Futures Timing Indicator.......................................................................................27

Global Futures Market Timer Index..................................................................................28

Global Futures Fear Indicator..........................................................................................29

Wall Street Courier Index.................................................................................................29

Global Futures Trading Index...........................................................................................30

Global Futures Speculation Index....................................................................................31

Program Trading..............................................................................................................32

Calendar Spread..............................................................................................................33

Odd-Lot Differential Index................................................................................................34 Page 3

The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com

Short Sales Statistics...........................................................................................................35

The NYSE Short Interest Ratio........................................................................................35

Odd-Lot Short Sales Ratio...............................................................................................36

Floor Traders Short Sales Ratio.......................................................................................36

Specialist Short Sales Ratio.............................................................................................37

NYSE Member Short Sales Ratio....................................................................................38

Public Short Sales Ratio..................................................................................................38

Odd-Lot Balance Index....................................................................................................39

Odd-Lot/Floor Trader Short Sales Ratio...........................................................................40

Global Futures Odd-Lot/Specialist Short Sales Ratio.......................................................40

Global Futures Public/Member Short Sales Ratio............................................................41

Public/Specialists Short Sales Ratio................................................................................42

High readings indicate heavy shorting by the public (the so called crowd) and therefore bottoms, low readings indicate tops.................................................................................42

Global Futures NYSE Member Trading Indicator.............................................................43

Sentiment Indicators............................................................................................................44

Investor Sentiment...........................................................................................................44

Commitments of Traders Report......................................................................................46

Appendix.............................................................................................................................48

Dow Jones Industrial........................................................................................................48

S&P 500...........................................................................................................................48

Risk Statement....................................................................................................................49

Page 4

The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com

Advance-Decline Indicators

Advance-Decline Line

The Advance-Decline Line is a market breadth indicator and should be compared to the other market indices like the Dow Jones or S&P 500. Daily or weekly NYSE data is used in the calculation. Because the Advance-Decline Line reflects the action of the general market, any divergences are watched closely by market technicians. As long as the Dow and the Advance-Decline Line are moving in the same direction the trend will continue. If the Dow makes a new high which is not confirmed by a high of the Advance-Decline Line, caution is warranted. Vice versa, if the Dow makes a new low and the Advance-Decline Line doesn't you should cover your short sales.

ADVANCE - DECLINE LINE WEEKLY10000012000014000016000096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com

To calculate your own weekly Advance-Decline Line is very simple and you can begin your calculations at any time. Just pick a large enough base number like 100000. Then you calculate each week (or day) the difference between advances and declines by adding the advances and subtracting the declines. If you have 1269 advances and 1457 declines on your first week, the reading of your newly created weekly Advance-Decline Line would be 99812 (example below).

Page 5

The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com

Date

Advances

Declines

A-D Line

100000

09.06.95

1269

1457

99812

16.06.95

1714

975

100551

23.06.95

1591

1148

100994

30.06.95

1346

1348

100992

07.07.95

2032

692

102332

14.07.95

1507

1191

102648

21.07.95

894

1875

101667

28.07.95

1891

845

102713

04.08.95

1404

1291

102826

11.08.95

1187

1489

102524

18.08.95

1624

1043

103105

25.08.95

1486

1176

103415

01.09.95

1656

1011

104060

08.09.95

1903

759

105204

The Advance-Decline Line gave a useful example in 1999. During the strong bull market the advance was quite broad and the A/D Line moved in tandem with the Dow. But when the Dow made new highs in the beginning of 1999 the A/D Line was already lagging behind, indicating a weakening of the general market. Internet mania and technology craze kept the market going for a while.

Page 6

The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com

Advance-Decline Ratio

The Advance-Decline Ratio is also market breadth indicator. It is calculated by dividing the number of advancing issues by the number of declining issues using daily or weekly NYSE data. It works very well as an overbought/oversold indicator and as a momentum indicator. A moving average should be used to smooth out the swings.

Date

Advances

Declines

A/D * 100

10-Week MA

09.06.95

1269

1457

87

16.06.95

1714

975

176

23.06.95

1591

1148

139

30.06.95

1346

1348

100

07.07.95

2032

692

294

14.07.95

1507

1191

127

21.07.95

894

1875

48

28.07.95

1891

845

224

04.08.95

1404

1291

109

11.08.95

1187

1489

80

138

18.08.95

1624

1043

156

145

25.08.95

1486

1176

126

140

01.09.95

1656

1011

164

143

08.09.95

1903

759

251

158

This chart shows you the weekly NYSE Advance-Decline Ratio on a 10-week moving average. Readings below 90 indicate intermediate bottoms and readings above 170 tops.

ADVANCE-DECLINE RATIO0,400,801,201,602,002,4095-08-1195-10-0695-12-0196-01-2696-03-2296-05-1796-07-1296-09-0696-11-0196-12-2797-02-2197-04-1897-06-1397-08-0897-10-0397-11-2898-01-2398-03-2098-05-1598-07-1098-09-0498-10-3098-12-2599-02-1999-04-1699-06-1199-08-0699-10-0199-11-2600-01-2100-03-1700-05-1200-07-0700-09-0100-10-2700-12-2201-02-1601-04-1301-06-08© WallStreetCourier.com10-DAY MOVING AVERAGE Page 7

The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com

Upside-Downside Volume Ratio

The Upside-Downside Volume Ratio is also market breadth indicator. It is calculated by dividing the volume of advancing issues by the volume of declining issues, using daily or weekly NYSE data. It works very well as an overbought/oversold indicator and as well as a momentum indicator. A moving average should be used to smooth out the swings.

Date

Adv. Volume

Decl. Volume

AV/DV*100

10-Week MA

09.06.95

673210

732827

92

16.06.95

943121

565840

167

23.06.95

964871

666807

145

30.06.95

674725

765076

88

07.07.95

867512

353025

246

14.07.95

945574

756197

125

21.07.95

755969

1027248

74

28.07.95

1008468

584579

173

04.08.95

733204

703285

104

11.08.95

565588

669580

84

130

18.08.95

796723

615752

129

133

25.08.95

629338

603130

104

127

01.09.95

727349

553140

131

126

08.09.95

746298

418632

178

135

UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE VOLUME RATIO8010012014016018096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com

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The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com

Upside-Downside Volume Line

The Upside-Downside Volume Line is a market breadth indicator and should be compared to the other market indices like the Dow Jones or S&P 500. Daily or weekly NYSE data is used in the calculation. Because the Upside-Downside Volume Line reflects the action of the general market, any divergences are watched closely by market technicians. As long as the Dow and the Upside-Downside Volume Line are moving in the same direction the trend will continue. If the Dow makes a new high which is not confirmed by a high of the Upside-Downside Volume Line, caution is warranted. It is more affirmative than the Advance-Decline Line and it gave a perfect sell signal in January 2000, when the Dow made a new high and the Upside-Downside Volume Line lagged behind (charts below). Vice versa, if the Dow makes a new low and the Upside-Downside Volume Line doesn't, you should cover your short sales. To calculate your own weekly Upside-Downside Volume Line is very simple and you can begin your calculations at any time. Just pick a large enough base number like 1000000. Then you calculate each week (or day) the difference between the upside volume and downside volume by adding the volume of advancing issues and subtracting the volume of declining issues. If you have an upside volume of 673210 and a downside volume of 732827 on your first week, the reading of your newly created weekly Upside-Downside Volume Line would be 940383 (example below).

Date

Upside Volume

Downside Volume

U-D Volume Line

1000000

09.06.95

673210

732827

940383

16.06.95

943121

565840

1317664

23.06.95

964871

666807

1615728

30.06.95

674725

765076

1525377

07.07.95

867512

353025

2039864

14.07.95

945574

756197

2229241

21.07.95

755969

1027248

1957962

28.07.95

1008468

584579

2381851

04.08.95

733204

703285

2411770

11.08.95

565588

669580

2307778

18.08.95

796723

615752

2488749

25.08.95

629338

603130

2514957

01.09.95

727349

553140

2689166

08.09.95

746298

418632

3016832 Page 9

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Here is a beautiful example of the Upside-Downside Volume Line. Volume moves the markets and this indicator gave a perfect sell signal in December 1999, when the Dow made a new high and the Upside-Downside Volume Line didn't. It would have kept you also on the right side of the market right to the top.

ADVANCE - DECLINE VOLUME LINE10000003000000500000070000009000000110000001300000015000000170000001900000021000000230000002500000096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comDIVERGENCE

DOW JONES WEEKLY CLOSE5000600070008000900010000110001200096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com DIVERGENCE

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Upside-Downside Volume Net Difference

Another method used by market technicians is to calculate the net difference between the upside- and downside volume. Daily or weekly data can be used. The net difference between upside- and downside volume is calculated weekly and the result is added. To smooth out the swings, a 10-week moving average should be applied. Below there is an example for weekly calculations:

Date

Adv. Volume

Decl. Volume

Net Difference

Cumulative

0

09.06.95

673210

732827

-59617

-59617

16.06.95

943121

565840

377281

317664

23.06.95

964871

666807

298064

615728

30.06.95

674725

765076

-90351

525377

07.07.95

867512

353025

514487

1039864

14.07.95

945574

756197

189377

1229241

21.07.95

755969

1027248

-271279

957962

28.07.95

1008468

584579

423889

1381851

04.08.95

733204

703285

29919

1411770

11.08.95

565588

669580

-103992

1307778

18.08.95

796723

615752

180971

1488749

25.08.95

629338

603130

26208

1514957

01.09.95

727349

553140

174209

1689166

08.09.95

746298

418632

327666

2016832

UP - DOWNVOLUME NET DIFFERENCE-1000000-5000000500000100000096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com

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Advance-Decline Net Difference

Another method used by market technicians is to calculate the net difference between advances and declines. Daily or weekly data can be used. The net difference between advances and declines is calculated weekly and the result is added. To smooth out the swings, a 10-week moving average is applied. Below there is an example for weekly calculations:

Date

Advances

Declines

Net Differ.

Cumulative

10-Week MA

09.06.95

1269

1457

-188

-188

16.06.95

1714

975

739

551

23.06.95

1591

1148

443

1182

30.06.95

1346

1348

-2

441

07.07.95

2032

692

1340

1338

14.07.95

1507

1191

316

1656

21.07.95

894

1875

-981

-665

28.07.95

1891

845

1046

65

04.08.95

1404

1291

113

1159

11.08.95

1187

1489

-302

-189

535,0

18.08.95

1624

1043

581

279

581,7

25.08.95

1486

1176

310

891

615,7

01.09.95

1656

1011

645

955

593,0

08.09.95

1903

759

1144

1789

727,8

The chart went from extremely overbought in July 1997 to heavily oversold in September 1998: ADVANCE - DECLINE NET DIFFERENCE-1500-1000-500050010001500200096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© Page 12

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Global Futures Advance-Decline Index

This indicator is calculated by dividing the weekly number of advances and declines by the number of total issues traded. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings.

ADVANCE - DECLINE INDEX WEEKLY0,300,350,400,450,500,550,6096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comADVANCESDECLINES

Global Futures Upside-Downside Volume Index

This indicator is calculated by dividing the weekly upside and downside volumes by the weekly total volume. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. UPSIDE - DOWNSIDE VOLUME INDEX WEEKLY0,360,380,400,420,440,460,480,500,520,540,5696-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comUPSIDE VOLUMEDOWNSIDE VOLUMEy Page 13

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Market Indicators

High-Low Differential Index

Like the advance-decline line, the high-low indicators produce signals when they diverge from the action of the indices like the Dow Jones or the S&P 500. It is considered unhealthy for the market climate if the indices make new highs without many stocks reaching new highs at the same time. Chart technicians use various methods to spot divergences from the major market indices.

The High-Low Differential Index produces good longer term signals when it diverges from the action of the Dow over a prolonged period of time. Daily or weekly data may be used and the calculation of this indicator is very simple; just subtract the daily or weekly new lows from the new highs to get the differential and apply a moving average to smooth out the swings. If you have 479 new highs and 31 new lows on your first week, the reading of your newly created weekly High-Low Differential Index would be 448 (example below).

Date

Highs

Lows

Differential

10-week MA

09.06.95

479

31

448

16.06.95

371

42

329

23.06.95

491

56

435

30.06.95

292

42

250

07.07.95

485

29

456

14.07.95

635

36

599

21.07.95

331

50

281

28.07.95

464

43

421

04.08.95

402

42

360

11.08.95

337

47

290

387

18.08.95

338

53

285

371

25.08.95

336

46

290

367

01.09.95

397

50

347

358

08.09.95

530

31

499

383

15.09.95

664

43

621

399

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HIGH-LOW DIFFERENTIAL INDEX-1500-1000-50005001000150096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com

High-Low Ratio

The High-Low Ratio is the number of new highs divided by the numbers of new lows. Daily or weekly data may be used in the calculation. Readings do get sometimes very distorted if there are for instance about 600 new highs and 5 new lows or vice versa. A long-period moving average should therefore be applied.

HIGH-LOW RATIO WEEKLY0246810121416182096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com

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Global Futures High-Low Index

This indicator is calculated by dividing the weekly number of highs and lows by the number of total issues traded. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. Like the advance-decline line, this indicator produces signals when it diverges from the action of the indices like the Dow Jones or the S&P 500. It is considered unhealthy for the market climate if the indices make new highs without many stocks reaching new highs at the same time.

HIGH -LOW INDEX0,010,030,050,070,090,110,130,150,170,190,210,230,2596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comLOWSHIGHS10- WEEK MOVING AVERAGE

Global Futures Bottom Indicator

The Global Futures Bottom Indicator was developed by R. Koch of Wall Street Courier. To our knowledge there is no previous mentioning of this indicator in any financial publication. It does not appear very often but it is extremely reliable when the market is at a turning point. It prevents long-term investors from buying at the wrong time and works especially well for option traders because of its incredibly perfect timing. Unfortunately this indicator does not tell you when to sell. Set yourself a limit if you trade options, or use trailing stop-loss orders if you are a long-term investor.

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Check BARRON`S every Monday for the weekly:

• CALLS ADVANCES

• CALLS DECLINES

• PUTS ADVANCES

• PUTS DECLINES

• (CBOE MARKET REPORT)

It takes you only five minutes every week to calculate the Global Futures Bottom Indicator:

• Divide the number of calls advancing by the number of calls declining

• Divide the number of puts declining by the number of puts advancing

• Subtract the result of calls adv./decl. from the result of puts decl./adv.

• Plot the difference on a chart and ignore the decimal.

Example

Calls Adv.

Calls Decl.

Unch.

Puts Adv.

Puts Decl.

Unch.

Prev.Week

23000

11000

8000

7000

25000

10000

This Week

9000

26000

6000

24000

8000

7000

You calculate as follows:

23000 : 11000 = 2,09 25000 : 7000 = 3,57 Difference = 148 (357 minus 209)

9000 : 26000 = 0,34 8000 : 24000 = 0,33 Difference = - 1 ( 33 minus 34)

Date

Calls Adv.

Calls Decl.

Calls A/D

Puts Adv.

Puts Decl.

Puts D/A

Bottom Indicator

09.06.95

12656

14215

0,89

9590

13879

1,45

56

16.06.95

17696

9818

1,80

5647

18431

3,26

146

23.06.95

14390

8550

1,68

6014

13839

2,30

62

30.06.95

10933

17902

0,61

12571

11735

0,93

32

07.07.95

21611

7779

2,78

4894

20146

4,12

134

14.07.95

17819

12190

1,46

8627

15531

1,80

34

21.07.95

9071

22844

0,40

15943

9405

0,59

19

28.07.95

18152

7554

2,40

4748

17237

3,63

123

04.08.95

11159

21092

0,53

14649

11905

0,81

28

11.08.95

13081

19336

0,68

12100

14522

1,20

52

18.08.95

19594

12741

1,54

6930

20184

2,91

137

25.08.95

9760

16547

0,59

10368

11238

1,08

49 Page 17

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THE GLOBAL FUTURES BOTTOM INDICATOR-25257512517522527532537542547596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com THE GLOBAL FUTURES BOTTOM INDICATOR-20,00-10,000,0010,0020,0030,0040,0050,0096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYBOTTOM

Any zero or minus reading indicates a bottom. Since this indicator was invented and developed it only failed twice on a minus reading if compared to the Dow Jones. This was due to panic selling on August 3rd and August 24th 1990 when Saddam invaded Kuwait.

• Readings between 1 and 5 are also very reliable and indicate intermediate bottoms in bull markets.

• Readings up to 25 may work but should be counterchecked with other indicators such as the Global Futures Market Timing Indicator.

• Readings above 600 are good breadth indicators and show you that a powerful market move on the upside is to be expected.

• Ignore all other readings.

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For your convenience there is a track record attached (377 kb) back to 1985 for you to check the value of this indicator. Plot the numbers on a chart and compare it with previous market action. Feel free to make use of our indicator if you find it useful. Feel also free to publish it as long as you mention the source and call it the Global Futures Bottom Indicator. Download the track record at http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/technician/timing-indicators/track-record.htm

Cycles

Cycle analysis has a long history and is also part of technical analysis. All markets appear to be subject to cyclical patterns and forces caused by economic influences and countless other factors. Stock market movements seem to take place with cyclical regularity and timing your trades to coincide with anticipated cyclical movements can be very rewarding. Wall Street Courier offers some very reliable cycles for subscribers.

Large Block Index

The Large Block Index is calculated from the number of upticks and downticks in large block transactions of single trades of 10 000 shares and over. An uptick is at a price higher than the last previous trade and initiated by a buyer. A downtick is at a price lower than the previous trade and initiated by a seller. The rationale behind the Large Block Index is quite simple. It measures activities and extremes in institutional sentiment and behavior. When the ratio of upticks rises to very high levels, it indicates that the institutions are buying heavily, reaching a fully invested position and therefore lowering their cash reserves.

Conversely, when the ratio of downticks rises to high levels, it indicates that the institutions are selling and are raising cash. When the institutional behaviour reaches extremes, the market will turn in a contrary direction. This indicator has often signaled major reversals and has also prevented investors from plunging into the market at the wrong time. The chart below shows you this indicator on a 10-day moving average.

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THE GLOBAL FUTURES LARGE BLOCK INDEX0,800,850,900,951,001,051,101,151,201,251,301,351,401,451,5098-08-1498-09-1198-10-0998-11-0698-12-0499-01-0199-01-2999-02-2699-03-2699-04-2399-05-2199-06-1899-07-1699-08-1399-09-1099-10-0899-11-0599-12-0399-12-3100-01-2800-02-2500-03-2400-04-2100-05-1900-06-1600-07-1400-08-1100-09-0800-10-0600-11-0300-12-0100-12-2901-01-2601-02-2301-03-2301-04-2001-05-1801-06-15© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL10-DAY MOVING AVERAGE

Short Term Trading Index (ARMS Index or TRIN)

The Short Term Trading Index was invented over 30 years ago by Richard Arms and is also known as ARMS Index. It is calculated by dividing advancing issues by declining issues and advancing volume by declining volume. The first result is then divided by the latter and the result is the TRIN. If the index is above one, the average volume of stocks that fell on the NYSE was greater than the average volume of stocks that rose and vice versa. But it is most confirmative when it reaches extremes. This indicator rises sharply when the market is most depressed and selling is climaxing, and falls to very low levels during buying frenzies.

Date

Adv.

Decl.

A/D

Upvol.

Downvol.

U/D Vol.

TRIN

10- MA

13.06.01

1521

1561

0,97

384035

657357

0,58

1,67

14.06.01

927

2150

0,43

218634

997425

0,22

1,97

15.06.01

1437

1588

0,90

649006

904083

0,72

1,26

18.06.01

1309

1776

0,74

408501

682268

0,60

1,23

19.06.01

1498

1541

0,97

543321

615409

0,88

1,10

20.06.01

1823

1269

1,44

716273

610436

1,17

1,22

21.06.01

1738

1352

1,29

905813

547728

1,65

0,78

22.06.01

1243

1814

0,69

439011

722679

0,61

1,13

25.06.01

1301

1777

0,73

332607

682239

0,49

1,50

26.06.01

1778

1294

1,37

577414

605567

0,95

1,44

1,33

27.06.01

1811

1268

1,43

462680

657256

0,70

2,03

1,37 Page 20

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28.06.01

1882

1211

1,55

877241

423609

2,07

0,75

1,24

29.06.01

1938

1141

1,70

964950

759013

1,27

1,34

1,25

02.07.01

1598

1468

1,09

694667

399965

1,74

0,63

1,19

03.07.01

1592

1349

1,18

307258

304648

1,01

1,17

1,20

SHORT TERM TRADING INDEX WEEKLY (TRIN)0,700,901,101,3096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL4-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE

TRIN DAILY0,700,951,201,451,7096-01-0296-02-2796-04-2396-06-1896-08-1396-10-0896-12-0397-01-2897-03-2597-05-2097-07-1597-09-0997-11-0497-12-3098-02-2498-04-2198-06-1698-08-1198-10-0698-12-0199-01-2699-03-2399-05-1899-07-1399-09-0799-11-0299-12-2800-02-2200-04-1800-06-1300-08-0800-10-0300-11-2801-01-2301-03-2001-05-15© WallStreetCourier.com10-DAY MOVING AVERAGEBUYSELL

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Trend Indicator

Why are some traders more successful than others? There are probably as many answers as there are traders out there. But you will undoubtedly agree that most of the money is being made in a trend, especially as far as options and futures are concerned. In options trading your biggest enemy by far is time. You need to have the patience and discipline to wait for a trend in the market in order to succeed on the long run. The same rule applies to any short-term oriented trader. The Global Futures Trend Index shows you clearly when to enter the market. This index is computed by dividing the daily highs by the sum of the daily highs and lows. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. As long as the readings of this index stay above the 80%-level there is a solid bullish trend in progress. Any weakness should be used to go long or to buy call options, preferably of stocks which are in a clear uptrend, or stock index options. Readings below 20 indicate a bearish trend. Strong days should be used to short stocks which are already weak, or to buy put options. As long as this indicator is in neutral territory don't do anything unless you are a savvy stockpicker, insider or a long-term value investor.

THE GLOBAL FUTURES TREND INDEX0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,0096-01-0296-02-2796-04-2396-06-1896-08-1396-10-0896-12-0397-01-2897-03-2597-05-2097-07-1597-09-0997-11-0497-12-3098-02-2498-04-2198-06-1698-08-1198-10-0698-12-0199-01-2699-03-2399-05-1899-07-1399-09-0799-11-0299-12-2800-02-2200-04-1800-06-1300-08-0800-10-0300-11-2801-01-2301-03-2001-05-15© WallStreetCourier.comBULLISH TRENDTRADING RANGE MARKETBEARISH TREND

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CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

VIX computes volatility of four OEX contracts in two nearby months and is published daily by the CBOE. Options selected for this index are one call and one put just out of the money, and one call and one put just in the money, for each of the two front months of the OEX (S&P 100). Extremely high readings of VIX indicate bottoms and low readings tops.

VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) WEEKLY0102030405096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18©

Index Options Put/Call Ratio

This indicator is calculated by dividing the weekly volume of S&P 100 call options by the weekly volume of S&P 100 put options. Big call volume appears at market tops and big put volume at bottoms. But call/put ratios of the indices like OEX and SPX are distorted and clouded by arbitrage and hedging and do therefore not always reflect true investor sentiment.

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CALL/PUT RATIO OEX0,350,550,750,951,1596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com4-WEEK MOVING AVERAGEBUYSELL

Call/Put Ratio

This indicator is calculated by dividing the daily or weekly volume of call options by the daily or weekly volume of put options. Big call volume appears at market tops and big put volume at bottoms. Only CBOE equity options or all CBOE options should be used for this indicator. Call/put ratios of the indices like OEX and SPX are distorted and clouded by arbitrage and hedging and do therefore not always reflect true investor sentiment. The chart below shows you the weekly call/put ratio on a 4-week moving average to smooth out the swings.

CALL/PUT RATIO ALL CBOE OPTIONS1,001,251,501,752,002,252,5096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comSELLBUY4-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE Page 24

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CALL/PUT RATIO EQUITY OPTIONS1,502,002,503,0096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL4-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE

Global Futures Put/Volume Ratio

The Global Futures Put/Volume Ratio is a market sentiment indicator. It is calculated by dividing the volume of CBOE equity put options by the NYSE volume on a weekly basis and is interpreted in a contrary fashion. High readings signify extreme pessimism and fear, sometimes outright panic and indicate very often bottoms. Low readings of this indicator result from the anticipation of higher prices ahead and are therefore considered bearish. It is in our opinion more affirmative than the widely used put/call ratio which has gained widespread notice. THE GLOBAL FUTURES PUT/VOLUME RATIO1520253035404596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 25

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Smart Money Flow Index

The Smart Money Flow Index has long been one of the best kept secrets of Wall Street. Everybody knows the importance of a closing price and other last hour indicators like the Closing Tick, which we publish daily for free on our portal. The Smart Money Flow Index is therefore calculated by taking the action of the Dow in two time periods: the first 30 minutes and the close. The first 30 minutes represent emotional buying, driven by greed and fear of the crowd based on good and bad news. There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening. Smart money waits until the end and they very often test the market before by shorting heavily just to see how the market reacts. Then they move in the big way. These heavy hitters also have the best possible information available to them and they do have the edge on all the other market participants. The Smart Money Indicator is calculated like the Advance-Decline Line. You can easily do it yourself if you don't want to pay our subscription rate of $1.50 weekly (based on a 6-month membership). Just start at any given day, subtract the price of the Dow at 10 AM from the previous day's close and add today's closing price. The result is plotted on a chart, together with the closing price of the Dow only. Whenever the Dow makes a high which is not confirmed by the SMI there is trouble ahead (chart below). Watch the divergence around June 1998, February 2000 and September 2000. Watching this indicator is like being on a plane and see the pilots jumping off with parachutes. This indicator is suitable only for investors with a longer time horizon. Such investors should buy blue chips when the indicator gives a buy signal, and sell and sell short on a divergence.

SMART MONEY FLOW INDEX60008000100001200098-01-0298-01-3098-02-2798-03-2798-04-2498-05-2298-06-1998-07-1798-08-1498-09-1198-10-0998-11-0698-12-0499-01-0199-01-2999-02-2699-03-2699-04-2399-05-2199-06-1899-07-1699-08-1399-09-1099-10-0899-11-0599-12-0399-12-3100-01-2800-02-2500-03-2400-04-2100-05-1900-06-1600-07-1400-08-1100-09-0800-10-0600-11-0300-12-0100-12-2901-01-2601-02-2301-03-2301-04-2001-05-1801-06-15© WallStreetCourier.comDOW JONES CLOSESMART MONEY FLOW INDEXBearishDivergenceBearishDivergence

BullishDivergence

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Global Futures Timing Indicator

This indicator, like the Global Futures Bottom Indicator, is unknown until now to the investment community and is not available anywhere else. To our knowledge there is no previous mentioning of this indicator in any financial publication. It was also developed by R. Koch of Wall Street Courier. The Global Futures Timing Indicator gives buy signals more often and is an excellent supplement to the Global Futures Bottom Indicator, especially when this one has readings between 6 and 25. It prevents investors from buying at the wrong time and it works also very well for option speculators and position traders because of its expert timing.

Both indicators together should improve your trading substantially and will build you an estate in the years ahead. Just start buying good value stocks whenever the readings of the Global Futures Timing Indicator shrink to single digit numbers. This takes of course a lot of guts because the opinions of the widely quoted gurus are usually contrary at this time. Minus readings indicate an intermediate bottom.

THE GLOBAL FUTURES TIMING INDICATOR-20,00-10,000,0010,0020,0030,0040,0050,0060,0070,0080,0096-01-1296-02-2396-04-0596-05-1796-06-2896-08-0996-09-2096-11-0196-12-1397-01-2497-03-0797-04-1897-05-3097-07-1197-08-2297-10-0397-11-1497-12-2698-02-0698-03-2098-05-0198-06-1298-07-2498-09-0498-10-1698-11-2799-01-0899-02-1999-04-0299-05-1499-06-2599-08-0699-09-1799-10-2999-12-1000-01-2100-03-0300-04-1400-05-2600-07-0700-08-1800-09-2900-11-1000-12-2201-02-0201-03-1601-04-2701-06-08© WallStreetCourier.comSTART BUYINGINTERMEDIATE BOTTOM

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Global Futures Market Timer Index

The Global Futures Market Timer Index is a proprietary indicator of Global Futures and not available anywhere else. It was unknown until now to the investment community and to our knowledge there is no previous mentioning of this indicator in any financial publication. The Global Futures Market Timer Index gives buy signals when it has readings below 1,00 and sell signals above 1,20. Start buying good value stocks whenever the readings of this index fall below 1,00. This takes of course a lot of guts because the opinions of the widely quoted gurus are usually contrary at this time. Place close stops when readings go above 1,20.

THE GLOBAL FUTURES MARKET TIMER INDEX0,801,001,201,4096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© SELLBUY

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Global Futures Fear Indicator

The Global Futures Fear Indicator is a proprietary indicator of Global Futures and not available anywhere else. It was unknown until now to the investment community and to our knowledge there is no previous mentioning of this indicator in any financial publication. The Global Futures Indicator gives buy signals when it has readings between 0 and 10.

Start buying good value stocks whenever the readings of this index fall below 0. This takes of course a lot of guts because the opinions of the widely quoted gurus are usually contrary at this time. Unfortunately this indicator does not tell you when to sell. Set yourself a limit if you trade options or use trailing stop-loss orders if you are a long-term investor.

THE GLOBAL FUTURES FEAR INDICATOR-5,000,005,0010,0015,0020,0025,0030,0035,0040,0096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYPANIC

Wall Street Courier Index

The Wall Street Courier Index gives you a longer term picture of the stock market. Readings below 40 indicate a heavily oversold market which is ripe for an upturn. Readings above 50 flash a warning signal and you should use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your profits. This index serves longer-term oriented position traders very well. It is also a contrarian indicator and once again we would like to remind you that charts usually look most bullish at tops and most bearish at bottoms.This indicator has an excellent track record as you can see.

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THE WALL STREET COURIER INDEX0,350,400,450,500,550,6096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL

Global Futures Trading Index

The Global Futures Trading Index is a proprietary indicator of Global Futures. It shows bottoms and tops in trends and should be used together with the Global Futures Trend Index for exact timing. If the market is in a clear uptrend according to our trend index, go long if the Global Futures Trading Index shows a reading below 35. The reverse is true in a downtrend. Go short or buy puts if the index gives readings of 55 or above when the Global Futures Trend Index is below 20. Cover all your shorts if the index trades below 35 in a bearish trend. Please bear in mind that this index is a contrary indicator and therefore when these signals are given, they will be most likely contrary to most of the news of the moment and the opinions of the well known and most widely quoted gurus of Wall Street.

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THE GLOBAL FUTURES TRADING INDEX0,250,300,350,400,450,500,550,600,650,700,7596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL

Global Futures Speculation Index

This indicator is calculated by simply adding the number of the weekly CBOE equity calls and puts together and dividing the result by the weekly NYSE volume.

THE GLOBAL FUTURES SPECULATION INDEX0,600,801,001,201,4096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 31

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Program Trading

Program trading is the purchase or sale of at least 15 different stocks with a total value of $1 million or more. Some of Wall Streets biggest names are the players in this game and they are among others: Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, First Boston, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank Sec, and Nomura. There is a bullish tendency in the market whenever the Buy/Sell Ratio of program traders rises above 1,20 on a 4-week moving average. When program trading becomes excessive and accounts for more than about 25% of total volume on a 4-week moving average, the market became vulnerable in the past.

NYSE PROGRAM TRADING - BUY/SELL RATIO0,600,801,001,201,401,601,8096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com4 - WEEK MOVING AVERAGE PROGRAM TRADING IN % OF NYSE VOLUME 81420263296-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com4- WEEK MOVING AVERAGE

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Global Futures Time Premium Index

The Global Futures Time Premium Index is a sentiment indicator. The spread between the S&P 500 cash index and the S&P futures contracts (premium) shows high readings near market tops and low readings near market bottoms. The bold red lines on the chart below show you the futures contracts with the highest and lowest premiums of the last years on a 5-day moving average for comparison (6 months until expiration). If the index (premium of the nearby S&P 500 futures contract on a 5-day moving average) moves close to the upper line or above, bullish sentiment is prevailing which is a bearish indicator. The reverse is true if the index moves near or below the lower line; it shows extreme pessimism by futures traders and indicates bottoms.

GLOBAL FUTURES TIME PREMIUM INDEX01020304050114112110108106104102100989694929088868482807876747270686664626058565452504846444240383634323028262422201816141108642© WallStreetCourier.comSP U1

Calendar Spread

A good sentiment indicator in the past has been the Calendar Spread . This is the premium spread of the two nearby S&P 500 futures contracts (for instance the difference between the June SP and September SP contracts on a 5- day moving average). It shows if futures traders are extremely bearish or bullish. When speculation peaked in June 2000 and everybody was bullish, this indicator was as high as 23!

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DAILY CALENDAR SPREAD71115192399-01-0699-02-0399-03-0399-03-3199-04-2899-05-2699-06-2399-07-2199-08-1899-09-1599-10-1399-11-1099-12-0800-01-0500-02-0200-03-0100-03-2900-04-2600-05-2400-06-2100-07-1900-08-1600-09-1300-10-1100-11-0800-12-0601-01-0301-01-3101-02-2801-03-2801-04-2501-05-2301-06-2001-07-18© WallStreetCourier.com5- DAY MOVING AVERAGE

Odd-Lot Differential Index

This index is simply calculated by subtracting the daily or weekly odd-lot sales from the daily or weekly odd-lot purchases. A 10-period moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. High readings appear near market tops and minus readings near bottoms. Introduced by Wall Street Courier, the Odd -Lot Differential Index indicates the market sentiment of small investors who purchase less than 100 shares of a stock. These market participants are usually wrong about the direction of the market and this indicator is therefore considered to be a contrary opinion sentiment indicator.

ODD-LOT DIFFERENTIAL INDEX DAILY-1000010002000300002.01.200105.01.200110.01.200116.01.200119.01.200124.01.200129.01.200101.02.200106.02.200109.02.200114.02.20010.02.200123.02.200128.02.200105.03.200108.03.200113.03.200116.03.200121.03.200126.03.200129.03.200103.04.200106.04.200111.04.20117.04.200120.04.200125.04.200130.04.200103.05.200108.05.200111.05.200116.05.200121.05.200124.05.200130.05.200104.06.200107.06.00112.06.200115.06.200120.06.200125.06.200128.06.2001© WallStreetCourier.com10-DAY MOVING AVERAGE Page 34

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Short Sales Statistics

The NYSE Short Interest Ratio

Every short seller anticipates a declining stock market. Investors sell short stock when they anticipate its price going lower. Sooner or later they must cover their short sales by buying back the stock. A profit is made if the stock is bought back at a lower price than when it was sold short. Indicators based on short selling statistics are an important part of technical analysis. Daily and weekly short sales are reported by the NYSE and published by financial sites all over the Internet. Market technicians watch the short selling activities of all the market participants very carefully. They distinguish between the odd-lots and the general public, the so called crowd, and the well informed NYSE members, specialists, floor traders and corporate insiders. When a large amount of short selling activity is occurring, market participants obviously expect prices to head lower. The NYSE Short Interest Ratio is therefore a long-term contrary opinion sentiment indicator. It is calculated by dividing the monthly short interest figure released by the New York Stock Exchange by the average volume of trading per day. These numbers get sometimes distorted by arbitrage transactions, but the short interest ratio is nevertheless a good indicator of optimism or pessimism in the market. Short sellers are potential buyers sooner or later and represent a lot of buying power when they have to scramble for cover in a sudden market turn. Contrary indicators require at least some degree of pessimism in order to function and therefore you should watch this ratio very carefully. THE NYSE SHORT INTEREST RATIO2468Jan96Mar96May96Jul.96Sep.96Nov.96Jan97Mar97May97Jul.97Sep.97Nov.97Jan98Mar98May98Jul.98Sep.98Nov.98Jan99Mar99May99Jul.99Sep.99Nov.99Jan00Mar00May00Jul.00Sep.00Nov.00Jan01Mar 01May 01© WallStreetCourier.com Page 35

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Odd-Lot Short Sales Ratio

The Odd-Lot Short Sales Ratio is calculated by dividing odd-lot short sales by the total number of short sales. For stocks, the generally accepted unit of trading is 100 shares (round lot). The Odd -Lot Short Ratio indicates the market sentiment of small investors who purchase less than 100 shares of a stock (odd-lot). These market participants are usually wrong about the direction of the market and this indicator is therefore considered to be a contrary opinion sentiment indicator.

ODD-LOT SHORT SALES RATIO0,000150,00020,000250,00030,000350,00040,0004596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-1801-07-13© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL

Floor Traders Short Sales Ratio

The Floor Traders Short Sales Ratio is computed by dividing the total floor traders short sales by total short sales. A moving average should be applied to smooth out the swings. Floor traders are normally right about the trend of the market and if they are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for a correction. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market has hit bottom, especially if public- and odd-lot short sales increase at the same time.

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FLOOR TRADERS SHORT SALES RATIO0,000250,000450,000650,000850,001050,001250,001450,0016596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com

Specialist Short Sales Ratio

Specialists are responsible for balancing incoming buy and sell orders to maintain orderly markets in the stocks in which they specialize. The Specialist Short Sales Ratio is computed by dividing the total specialist short sales by total short sales. A moving average should be applied to smooth out the swings. Specialists are normally right about the trend of the market and if they are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for a correction. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market has hit bottom, especially if public- and odd-lot short sales increase at the same time. SPECIALISTS SHORT SALES RATIO0,300,350,400,450,500,550,6096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 37

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NYSE Member Short Sales Ratio

The NYSE Members Report is compiled by the SEC and issued about two weeks after the applicable date. This indicator is a useful tool to determine what the experts are doing. The NYSE Member Short Sales Ratio is computed by dividing the total member short sales by total short sales. A moving average should be applied to smooth out the swings. Members of the NYSE are professionals and normally right about the trend of the market. If they are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for a correction. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market has hit bottom, especially if public- and odd-lot short sales increase at the same time.

NYSE MEMBER SHORT SALES RATIO0,450,50,550,60,6596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com

Public Short Sales Ratio

The NYSE Members Report is compiled by the SEC and issued about two weeks after the applicable date. This indicator is a useful tool to determine what the public or the so called crowd is doing. The Public Short Sales Ratio is computed by dividing the total public short sales by total short sales. A moving average should be applied to smooth out the swings. The public is usually wrong about the trend of the market. If they are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for an upturn. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market is near a correction, especially if specialists short sales increase at the same time.

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PUBLIC SHORT SALES RATIO0,350,40,450,50,5596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18©

Odd-Lot Balance Index

This index is calculated by dividing daily or weekly odd-lot purchases by odd-lot sales. For stocks, the generally accepted unit of trading is 100 shares (round lot). The Odd -Lot Balance Index indicates the market sentiment of small investors who purchase less than 100 shares of a stock (odd-lot). These market participants are usually wrong about the direction of the market and this indicator is therefore considered to be a contrary opinion sentiment indicator.

ODD-LOT BALANCE INDEX DAILY0,801,001,201,401,601,8031.10.200007.11.200014.11.200021.11.200029.11.200006.12.200013.12.200020.12.200028.12.200005.01.20112.01.200122.01.200129.01.200105.02.200112.02.200120.02.200127.02.200106.03.200113.03.200120.03.200127.03.200103.04.200110.04.00118.04.200125.04.200102.05.200109.05.200116.05.200123.05.200131.05.200107.06.200114.06.200121.06.200128.06.200106.07.200113.0.200120.07.200127.07.200103.08.200110.08.200117.08.2001© WallStreetCourier.com10-DAY MOVING AVERAGESELLBUY Page 39

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Odd-Lot/Floor Trader Short Sales Ratio

This index is calculated by dividing the weekly odd-lot short sales by the weekly short sales by floor traders for better comparison. Introduced by Wall Street Courier, the Odd -Lot Short/Floor Trader Short Ratio indicates the market sentiment of small investors who purchase less than 100 shares of a stock (odd-lot). Unlike the more sophisticated floor traders, the odd-lotters are usually wrong about the direction of the market and this indicator is therefore considered to be a contrary opinion sentiment indicator.

ODD-LOT /FLOOR TRADERS SHORT SALES RATIO0,600,650,700,750,800,850,900,9596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL

Global Futures Odd-Lot/Specialist Short Sales Ratio

This index is calculated by dividing the weekly odd-lot short sales by the weekly specialists short sales for better comparison. A 4-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. Unlike the well informed specialists, the odd-lotters are usually wrong about the direction of the market and this indicator is therefore considered to be a contrary opinion sentiment indicator. High readings indicate heavy shorting by odd-lot investors and therefore bottoms, extremely low readings tops.

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ODD-LOT/SPECIALISTS SHORT SALES RATIO 0,00250,00550,00850,01150,014596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBULLISHBEARISH

Global Futures Public/Member Short Sales Ratio

This index is calculated by dividing the weekly public short sales by the weekly member short sales for better comparison. A 4-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. Members of the NYSE are professionals and normally right about the trend of the market. If they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market has hit bottom, especially if public short sales increase at the same time. High readings indicate heavy shorting by the public (the so called crowd) and therefore bottoms, low readings indicate tops.

PUBLIC/MEMBER SHORT SALES RATIO 0,600,801,001,2096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBULLISHBEARISH Page 41

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Public/Specialists Short Sales Ratio

The Specialist/Public Short Sales Ratio is a market sentiment indicator. It is calculated by dividing the volume of the weekly short sales made by the public (non members) by the weekly short sales made by stock exchange specialists (members). A 4-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. The public is usually wrong about the trend of the market. If they are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for an upturn. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market is near a correction, especially if specialists short sales increase at the same time.

High readings indicate heavy shorting by the public (the so called crowd) and therefore bottoms, low readings indicate tops.

PUBLIC/SPECIALISTS SHORT SALES RATIO 0,701,101,501,9096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBULLISHBEARISH

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Global Futures NYSE Member Trading Indicator

The NYSE Members Report is compiled by the SEC and issued about two weeks after the applicable date. This indicator is a useful tool to determine what the experts are doing. If specialists, floor traders and other members of the New York Stock Exchange are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for a correction. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market has hit bottom, especially if public- and odd-lot short sales increase at the same time. Even if data are not quite up-to date, they are nevertheless an excellent indicator of the prevailing sentiment in the market. The formula of the Global Futures NYSE Member Trading Indicator is proprietary and we also use special moving averages to push the tops and bottoms forward an extra two weeks or so.

THE NYSE MEMBER TRADING INDICATOR-0,09-0,07-0,05-0,03-0,010,010,030,050,0796-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18BULLISHBEARISH© WallStreetCourier.com

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Sentiment Indicators

Investor Sentiment

The principles of Contrarian Investing hold that when the vast majority of people agree on anything, they are generally wrong. Otherwise no market would function because there is simply no minority with money enough to make a majority rich. A true contrarian, therefore, will first try to determine what the majority are doing and then will act in the opposite direction. Market Vane, AAII and Investors Intelligence are all contrary opinion indicators.

A unique feature of Market Vane's Bullish Consensus numbers is a weighting formula applied to the various market letters. More weight is given to letters with a larger following and less weight to those with fewer readers. Each week a poll of market letters is taken to determine the degree of bullishness or bearishness among futures professionals. The theory is that when a significant number of participants are bullish, they are already positioned on the long side and there is little potential buying power left. If most participants are bearish, selling pressure has reached an extreme and prices will reverse to the upside.

BULL/BEAR RATIO MARKET VANE2040608096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-1801-07-13© WallStreetCourier.com10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGESELLBUY

Thanks to the Internet, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) now polls its 170,000 members daily. Respondents indicate how they feel about the

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market's performance in the next six months. The chart below shows the number of bulls divided by the number of bears. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. High readings appear near market tops and low readings near bottoms.

BULL/BEAR RATIO AAII0,601,101,602,102,603,103,604,1096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGEBUYSELL

Since 1963, Investors Intelligence has been compiling data on the opinions of publishers of market letters. They conduct a weekly poll of about 130 market newsletter writers and calculate the percentage who are bullish, bearish or expecting a short-term correction. The resulting index shows that the advisory services follow the trend of equity prices by becoming most bullish near market tops and most bearish around market bottoms. BULL/BEAR RATIO INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE0,801,201,602,002,4096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGEBUYSELL

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Commitments of Traders Report

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provides inside information about purchases and sales of futures contracts. The largest players in each market are required to disclose their positions to the CFTC on a daily basis and this report is released weekly on Friday afternoon (the reporting requirement varies by commodity). These traders are separated into Commercial Hedgers and Large Speculators.

The positions of Small Traders are calculated by subtracting the total of contracts held by the reporting groups from all the contracts outstanding (Small Traders are not required to report their positions). Commercial Hedgers hold a significant informational edge over other traders as far as fundamental supply-and-demand statistics are concerned. They tend to be early, but they are usually right on the long run, quite contrary to the small traders. Extreme divergences in long and short positions of Small Traders, Large Speculators and Commercial Hedgers have proven to be reliable indicators of important trend changes. In such cases it is not advisable to bet against the Commercial Hedgers. All other patterns are meaningless. The following charts show you the positions of these three groups of market participants. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings.

Three different charts are available for each commodity:

• Short positions of all market participants (Large Speculators, Commercial Hedgers, Small Traders) on a percentage basis.

• Short positions of Small Traders only. Significant changes in those numbers give you an insight about prevailing sentiment..

• The Long/Short Ratio of Small Traders. This chart is computed by dividing the long and short positions of Small Traders. High readings indicate heavy buying by Small Traders which is bearish.

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SOYBEANS - SHORT POSITIONS0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,7096-11-2697-01-2197-03-1897-05-1397-07-0897-09-0297-10-2897-12-2398-02-1798-04-1498-06-0998-08-0498-09-2998-11-2499-01-1999-03-1699-05-1199-07-0699-08-3199-10-2699-12-2100-02-1500-04-1100-06-0600-08-0100-09-2600-11-2101-01-1601-03-1301-05-0801-07-03© WallStreetCourier.comCOMMERCIAL HEDGERLARGE SPECULATORSMALL TRADER10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE SOYBEANS - SMALL TRADERS SHORT POSITION0,150,200,250,300,350,4096-01-0296-02-2796-04-2396-06-1896-08-1396-10-0896-12-0397-01-2897-03-2597-05-2097-07-1597-09-0997-11-0497-12-3098-02-2498-04-2198-06-1698-08-1198-10-0698-12-0199-01-2699-03-2399-05-1899-07-1399-09-0799-11-0299-12-2800-02-2200-04-1800-06-1300-08-0800-10-0300-11-2801-01-2301-03-2001-05-1501-07-10© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL SOYBEANS - SMALL TRADERS LONG/SHORT RATIO0,600,801,001,201,401,601,802,0096-01-0296-02-2796-04-2396-06-1896-08-1396-10-0896-12-0397-01-2897-03-2597-05-2097-07-1597-09-0997-11-0497-12-3098-02-2498-04-2198-06-1698-08-1198-10-0698-12-0199-01-2699-03-2399-05-1899-07-1399-09-0799-11-0299-12-2800-02-2200-04-1800-06-1300-08-0800-10-0300-11-2801-01-2301-03-2001-05-1501-07-10© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL Page 47

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Appendix

The enclosed charts of the indices have exactly the same time span as the charts in our e-book. You will therefore easily be able you to verify the reliability of each indicator.

Dow Jones Weekly Close

DOW JONES WEEKLY CLOSE5000600070008000900010000110001200096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com

S&P 500 Weekly Close

S & P 500 WEEKLY CLOSE600800100012001400160096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 48

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Risk Statement

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.” TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS.

THIS RISK STATEMENT APPLIES TO ANY ILLUSTRATION OF PROFIT AND LOSS CONTAINED WITHIN THIS PUBLICATION. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT STOP LOSS ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT LOSSES OR LOCK IN PROFITS.

DEPENDING UPON MARKET CONDITIONS, STOP LOSS ORDERS MAY BE EXECUTED AT PRICES SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW OR ABOVE THE SPECIFIED STOP PRICE.

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